Steelers vs. Packers

I don’t plan on doing this for every game next year.  That would just get ridiculous.  However, my deep analysis of last week’s game against the Jets proved that I at least knew what I was talking about and thus, it gives me reason to do a similar study of what the Steelers are going up against when they play the Packers.  This being the Super Bowl, plan on this study being a bit more in depth.  And as I look at the numbers, look to potentially be surprised with my prediction. 

To start, the Packers are 3 point favorites for this game.  It’s no surprise that Vegas has given the Packers the edge.  They’re the sexier team right now.  Rogers is looking really good.  They’re defense is playing lights out.  And let’s face it, no one wants Roethlisberger to have 3 Super Bowl rings after his summer rendezvous.  Vegas would be dumb not to have the Packers the edge. 

But let’s first look at the regular season numbers because they’re pretty interesting.  We’ll start with the offense because the differences between the two teams are not that vast here.  Only 13 yards separate the total yards the teams averaged (Packers-358 YPG, Steelers-345 YPG) each game and only one point separates the average points per game (Packers-24, Steelers-23).  The Packers have a definite edge in the passing game (258 YPG vs 225 YPG) whereas the Steelers have a definite edge in the running game (120 YPG vs 100 YPG).  Not surprisingly then, the Packers offense relies on the passing game as they call 7 more pass plays a game than they do call running ones.  The Steelers have a very balanced offense in that they average 29 pass plays and 29 rushes a game.  This statistic brings the Total Yards Per Game statistic into perspective. 

With the offenses being very, very close, protection of the ball and the quarterbacks is very important.  Regarding turnovers, both teams have 9 lost fumbles this year.  Rogers has thrown 11 interceptions this year vs. Roethlisberger’s 5 but Rogers completion percentage is 4 points better (65.7% vs 61.7%).  Rogers average passer rating is also better by about 4 points (101.2 vs. 97.0).  In terms of just protecting the quarterback, the Steelers offensive line has given up 43 sacks whereas the Packers have given up 38.  However, these statistics are so close that it’s hard to say who actually has the clear edge.  However, if we’re speaking subjectively, then I think most, including myself, would say that Rogers has the better arm.  On the other hand, I think that Roethlisberger is more elusive and has the better ability to lengthen the play.  Instead of claiming one superior then, I think the only safe thing to say is that they both fit into their respective team’s offensive scheme really well and all in all, the Packers seem to have the slightest of advantages regarding the two team’s offenses. 

Very briefly, let’s talk about special teams.  Both teams kickers are not stellar with the Packer’s having a 79% field goal percentage and the Steelers having a 78%.  The special teams have been the Steelers achilles heel this year and for the first time, they’ll be playing a team with no legitimate threat at the return man position.  In fact, the Packers were ranked 26^th in the league this year and didn’t take any to the house.  This is a load off for the Steelers.  The Steelers on the other hand were ranked 13^th in the league this year and did return one (and only one) for six points.  Regardless, we shouldn’t expect too much out of either teams Special Team unit but the slightest of edges goes to the Steelers.

Now, in my opinion, the most important aspect of the game: defense.  This game is showcasing arguably the two best defenses in the league.  And when we look at the statistics for the regular season, they match up very closely.   Although the Steelers do lead in 6 out of the 8 major categories, the Packers are right behind them in each statistic.  The Steelers give up an average of 277 YPG while the Packers give up 309 YPG.  Within those yards, the Steelers give up about 214 passing yards and 63 rushing yards.  The Packers give up 194 passing yards and 115 rushing yards.  The Steelers then have a better rush defense whereas the Packers have a better pass defense.  Moving on, the Steelers led the league this year with 48 sacks but the Packers came in second with 47.  Again, the Steelers led the league in giving up 14.5 points per game but the Packers were second here too by giving up only 15 points per game.  The Steelers led the Packers by forcing 35 turnovers in all (the Packers only had 32) but the Packers, not surprisingly, led the Steelers with 24 interceptions (to the Steelers 21) and the Steelers led the Packers with 14 forced fumbles (to the Packers 8).  When it’s all said and done, the defenses are both incredibly strong and incredibly proud teams.  However, the slight edge has to go to the Steelers. 

So currently, the Packers have the slight edge in their offense where the Steelers seem to have a slight edge in their defense.  The special teams are basically a wash.  One of the more unusual advantages that the Packers have over the Steelers is their experience on turf.  The Packers have played on turf a total of four times this year whereas the Steelers have only played on turf twice this year and only one of those times were in a dome.  Although this isn’t a huge advantage, Aaron Rogers has had some incredible performances on turf.  In three out of the four games, he’s thrown for an average of 337 yards, has had an average of 2.6 touchdowns per game and hasn’t thrown an interception.  In Roethlisberger’s two games, he didn’t throw for over 200 yards in either contest, he threw one interception in both games, and he only threw one touchdown (as in, .5 touchdowns per game).  It is important to note a couple of things here though.  First of all, the Steelers ran the ball for over 100 yards in both games whereas the Packers didn’t run for over 100 in any of the 4 games they played.  Also, the Steelers were going up against the 4^th and 14^th best pass defense in the leagues whereas the Packers were going up against the 10^th and 22^nd best.  However, the Packers gave up an average of fewer points in their four games in comparison to the Steelers (12.75 PPG vs. 15PPG).  All in all, experience plays a big part in these games and the Packers have more of it on turf.

Moving onto the postseason.  It’s no secret that the Packers have been “the hottest” team in the playoffs.  However, the statistics match up with the regular season stats in pretty much every category.  The Packers have more Yards Per Game, Points Per Game, Passing Yards Per Game, Pass Attempts, and less Sacks given up.  The Steelers have more Rushing Yards Per Game and that’s pretty much it on the offense.  On the defense however, the Steelers lead in Yards Given Up Per Game, Passing Yards Given Up Per Game, Rushing Yards Given Up Per Game, and Sacks.  However, the Packers have given up less points and forced more turnovers (in both interceptions and fumbles).  The Steelers have had a better kick return average.  None of these stats should have been real surprises.  In order to say who’s played better in the playoffs, you have to take into account the teams the two have played.  The Steelers played two incredibly tough defenses (two of the toughest in the league in fact) but the Packers played some pretty high powered offenses and all of them were on the road.  In my mind, the Packers probably had a slightly more difficult playoff schedule but not by much.  However, I am not convinced that they are really the “hotter” team as some have said.  This is evidenced by their game vs. the Chicago Bears (the Packers did not look good against a defense that's not as good as the Steelers) and I thought that they should have been the clear favorites against the Eagles and Falcons due to the matchup problems they posed for both teams.  

I think what’s more interesting is that the Steelers have been playing against teams with very tough defenses and only good offenses.  The Packers have been playing against teams with better offenses than defenses (with exception to the Bears).   For this upcoming game, both teams present challenges that the other team hasn’t had to face yet in this year’s playoffs.  Both teams are very good on both sides of the ball.  Between all five games that the Packers and Steelers have been in, there seemed to be a clear side of the football that would have to succeed in order to win.  The Packers defense would have to succeed against the Eagles’ and Falcons’ offenses and their offense would have to succeed enough against the Bear’s defense.  The Steelers’ offense was forced to win against the Jets’ and the Ravens’ defenses if they were going to win.  For this game, there is no side of the ball that is clearly more important than the other.   

Some of the other key parts to this game include coaching experience.  I would argue that although both units are strong, Mike Tomlin and Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau hold the slight advantage over Mike McCarthy and Dom Capers.   The Steelers also have the experience of being in this position which gives them another slight advantage.  This is the third time for many of the Steeler players, and that includes some of the most important positions on the field and some of the biggest leaders on the team. 

The last bit of information for this game that I want to unleash before I pick my winner is that these two teams played about 1 year and 1 month ago.  On December 20^th, 2009, the Steelers and Packers played with the Steelers winning 37 to 36 on a last minute touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace.  While this was last year’s game, there are some interesting points to it.  First of all, 26 of the starters for both Pittsburgh and Green Bay will be playing again in this Super Bowl.  Both Rogers and Roethlisberger had a field day throwing the ball with Rogers accumulating 383 yards and Roethlisberger throwing for 503 yards.  Neither quarterback threw an interception.  The Steelers also out ran the Packers but only by a few yards and both teams were well under 100.  Last, and maybe most importantly, Troy Polamalu did not play that day.   

So with all of that said, my prediction to win this game is the Pittsburgh Steelers.  This is how I came to my conclusion:

First and foremost, I believe that the Steelers having the better defense is key.  Sure it's not by much, but they are better.  I also think that field position will be a big key to this game.  Although both teams’ special teams are not that special, I think the Steelers advantage here is important since both teams require their opponent to put together long drives to score.  Now, you're probably saying, "But that didn't happen last year.  It was a scoring bonanza with big play after big play after big play!"  Well, that's not going to happen this year- not as many at least.  The Steelers' offense is run very differently this year (much more balanced) and their defense is stronger.  Not to mention, Polamalu will fix a lot of the problems the Steelers had back in December of ’09 and Pittsburgh only added wide receivers to their offensive unit.  That will only make more coverage problems for the Green Bay defense.  Even with Pittsburgh’s beat up Offensive Line (without Maurkice Pouncey and Aaron Smith just to name a few), I think the Pittsburgh Offense will be okay here- although they will definitely give up some big sacks along the way.

Now I’m  not expecting the defenses to be dominant.  The ball will definitely be moved up and down the field.  The Steelers will most likely be able to run the ball on the Packers and the Packers will most likely be able to throw the ball on the Steelers.  However, the Packers have the capability to stop the run and the Steelers have the capability to stop the throw, especially with the Steelers strong defensive line and linebackers adding pressure on Rogers.  I think that the team that will be able to succeed more against the strength of the other team’s defense will win.  This means, if the Packers are able to establish a run game, they will win.  If the Steelers are able to establish a passing game, they will win.  The Steelers have proven that they can throw the ball against the Packers in last year’s contest.  No one has been able to establish a run game against the Steelers.  Therefore, if the Packers are going to win this game, Rogers will have to have the game of his life (which he is capable of) but I think the Steelers front defensive seven will prove to be too much for the Packers’ offensive line or Rogers to handle. 

My end score:  Steelers 31, Packers 24

Steelers vs. Jets

I’m not big on trash talkers.  I don’t like the teams or the fans or the who-evers that talk about their team as being superior and everyone else being clearly inferior.  That’s what makes the world of sports so great.  It’s never about who is more talented in general.  It’s about who’s more talented on a specific day.  It makes watching every single game a story that’s gripping to watch because although you know all the characters, the plot always twists in a way that is unexpected.   Just this could be my topic but I want to save it for another day because today, I want to talk about the Steelers vs. Jets.  As many of you know, I absolutely love the Steelers.  The Andy that watches Steelers games is a very different Andy in real life.  And since this is the seventh time the Steelers have been to the AFC championship game in my life time (they’ve won 3 and they’ve lost 3), the anxiety that I feel this week is all too familiar.  Therefore, instead of watching far too many Steeler press conferences or reading too much into other’s people analysis of the upcoming game, I want to make my case for why the Steelers should win against the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

First, let’s talk statistics.  In the defensive world (which in my opinion, is far more important than the offense in the playoffs), Steelers pretty much lead the Jets in every category.  The closest category was Yards Allowed per Game.  The Steelers were ranked 2^nd in the regular season with 276 yards per game whereas the Jets were ranked 3^rd with 291 ypg.  Not a huge difference, sure, but it’s one of the many stats where the Steelers lead.  The Steelers also are ahead of the Jets in rushing yards allowed, sacks, how many points the defense has scored, and turnovers forced.  The only category where the Jets beat the Steelers this year was in Passing Yards Allowed and the difference between the two teams  is only 15 yards.  Needless to say, the Steelers proved to have a better defense and that is key to winning any football game- especially a playoff game.

In terms of statistics regarding the offenses, the comparisons are surely there and the leaders in the different categories vary.  Passing Yards Per Game goes to the Jets whereas Rushing Yards Per Game goes to the Steelers.  The kicking games favors the Jets but the touchdowns per game favors the Steelers.  What’s most interesting about all of this though is where the Steelers passing game is statistically better than the Jets, the Jet’s passing defense is one of the best in the league.  On the Jets side, their running game is statistically better but the Steelers have the best running defense in the league.  However, when everything is said and done, the most important part of your offense is how many points you score- and the Steelers lead the Jets in this category.

Now a very important part about playing any game is familiarity.  The Steelers and the Jets have played each other once this year with the Jets winning 22 to 17.  However, when you look at the game’s statistics, there is a lot to be analyzed.  The Steelers led in the following statistics:  first downs gained, 3^rd down efficiency, total plays, total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, points score in the red zone, and time of possession.  The Jets only led in completion percentage, yards per throw, and penalties (in that they had less of them).  These stats are a good example of how the box score is not always a good indicator of what the scoreboard read.  It does show you though that the Steelers made a couple of big mistakes.  First of all, they gave up the opening kickoff for a touchdown which put the Jets in the lead quickly.  Second, they gave up a safety.  Those combined 9 points clearly played a huge difference in the game. 

More importantly still, the Steelers were playing without two of their star players: Troy Polamalu and Heath Miller.  Both of these players play a key role in the way the Steelers play defense and offense- especially Polamalu’s effect on the defense.  Polamalu is known as one of, if not the best, safeties in the league and his ability to cause disruption to any offense is uncanny.  Heath Miller is one of the league’s top tight ends in terms of both blocking and passing.  With him being healthy, Roethlisberger is going to have an easier time finding open receivers and he’ll most likely have more time to do it.  It’s clear to see then that the Steelers lost due to bad mistakes and because they were without two of the best players.  This Sunday, they’ll have Polamalu and Miller back on the field.  We’ll see if they can stay away from making the same type mistakes.  Regardless, there’s no reason to look at the last game played by these two teams and feel like it’s a clear indicator or what will surely happen again. 

All in all, it seems clear to me that when we talk statistics, the Steelers do have the upper hand.  What we haven’t mentioned is playoff experience amongst the players and coaches, the battles between the minds and schemes of the offensive and defensive coordinators, or home-field advantage.  However, all of these things favor the Steelers as well.  So again, it’s clear why the Steelers should win the game on Sunday- but that’s the beauty of the NFL.  Any given Sunday, any team could win.  Here’s hoping that the winning team this Sunday is the Steelers.  

A One-Sided Conversation

-  Hey, what's going on!
-  I know, I haven't seen you in such a long time!
-  You too!  I've lost a few pounds here... but put them on over here!
-  Well thank you, that's very kind. I'm was never the comedian between the two of us
-  No!  You are too.
-  So, what have you been up to?
-  (startled)  Really?
-  Wow, that sounds really adventurous.  Is it safe?
-  Sounds expensive.
-  Figured as much.  You never were cheap.
-  Oh come on, you joker!  I didn't mean it like that.
-  Haha, you're so immature.
-  Well, it sounds like you've really "found" yourself after all these years.  I'm really happy for you.
-  Oh me?  Nothing.  I've been doing the same old, same old.  Working the job.  Going for walks at 6 o'clock every night- trying to clear my head.  I'm trying to find "Me" in this world but it's so hard when there are so many other "Not-Me's" out there.  I mean, how can I find "Me" when I don't even know if I'm actually here and I just don't know it.  You know what I mean?
-  Oh come on, that is not "cool."  It's kind of lame actually.
-  You always knew just what to say.  Some things never change.
-  JINX!
-  JINX AGAIN!
-  Woah, that's crazy.
-  Hahahahahhahaha.
-  Sooooo, how's the ol' "Ball and Chain"
-  Oh my gosh!  I'm so sorry
-  What was she doing past the yellow line?
-  For a quarter?
-  Go figure, someone would have put it up on YouTube already.  So insensitive
-  Wow.  Forget terrorists in London- they need to put up better signs for their metro system or the 2012 Olympics are going to be a disaster.
-  So back to you and your business venture- do you really think there's a market for Underwater Fishing Trips?
-  It sounds like a thrill.  If I wasn't a scaredy-cat of deep waters then I would be in like Flynn.
-  You know I was wondering where they got that phrase from too just the other day.  Then I googled it...
-  I know, of course I googled it... and it turns out it has a pretty sexual connotation.  I'm trying to stop saying it because I don't want to be associated with smut.
-  Yeah well- I'm sure you'll do fine in the underwater fishing world.  And knowing you, you'll find a market- and then make like, a billion dollars off it!
-  Of course I'm exaggerating but I still wouldn't be surprised!
-  Hey mister, mister- some of us are still married!
-  Sorry.  That was really stupid.   I wasn't thinking when I said that!
-  No, come on!  It was an honest mistake.  You should know not to tickle me!  I don't have control over my words when I get tickled!
-  Hey, come back here!  (shouting) Well let me know if you want to get together sometime! I work here Monday through Friday!  (normal voice)  Welp, back to work.  Sir, did you want to upgrade to a full body massage or do you want to just stay with the back?
-  I understand, the airplane isn't going to wait for you, is it?