Surprising to some, mostly to me, I’ve been asked by a few folks when my Super Bowl prediction (aka: prophesy) is going to come out. Well, wait no longer because the moment has finally arrived and just in time for the game. If you’re a betting person, please thank me later when you’re “Scrooge McDuck-ing” into your bank full of gold coins.
It’s not going to be close folks. The Giants are going to dominate this game. I’m sorry, but it’s true. People are expecting a lot out of the Patriots but they’re not going to win this one. Before we get into the meat and potatoes of why, let’s just look at how the Patriots got here. They had a cake schedule all year- they beat Miami, then San Diego (when they were awwwful), then Oakland (bad team), then the Jets, then beat a decent Dallas team, then the Jets again, then Kansas City, then a Philadelphia team when Vince Young was quarterbacking, then Indianapolis, then Washington, then Denver, then Miami and then Buffalo to finish it off. Wow. The only teams they lost to was Pittsburgh and (drum roll) an injured Giants team- AT HOME! Come on folks. They haven’t proved anything yet. Not to mention, they haven’t played a single game indoors yet this season. The Giants were too fast for them in Foxborough. They’re going to be way too fast for them in Lucas Oil Stadium.
But Andy! What about the Patriots playoff schedule? I’m glad you asked. They beat a bad Broncos team and then they beat a Ravens team that they should have lost to had the Ravens learned how to catch, scratch that, hold onto game winning touchdowns. While Tom Brady is ridiculously good, he was getting handled by a Ravens defense that is statistically playing worse than the Giants are.
Your rebuttal now is probably that all it takes is one game. One Sunday and everything can change. Sure. You’re right. But in the biggest game of the year, the teams usually come to play. They’re rested. They’re prepared. And with exception to when the Steelers played the Seahawks, both teams are usually going to play a solid game (note: neither the Steelers or the Seahawks did well that year).
Look, a quick comparison in schedules and then we’ll move on. The Giants lost to the Redskins, the Seahawks, San Francisco, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Green Bay and Washington again. However, they beat St. Louis, Philly, Arizona, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas, the Jets, Dallas again, AND THE PATRIOTS. They’re schedule was just a tad tougher and the most important part about all of this who they played and beat in the playoffs. They first beat Atlanta- okay, not a huge win but it was important because it was on the road (indoors). Then they beat a Packers team they lost to previously. They beat a Niners team they previously lost to. No one on their team is hurt. They know how to beat the Patriots. And they’re going to do it again.
Okay, if the above didn’t convince you yet, I’ll just throw a couple more things out there. We’ll start with the post season stats because a lot of who wins in the NFL is about momentum. So you might be surprised that both teams’ defense have played pretty similarly. The Patriots are giving up 130 yards on the ground and 195 in the air. The Giants are giving up 120 yards on the ground and 200 in the air. Both teams have only gotten one interception and the Giants have forced 5 fumbles in comparison to the Patriots 3. But just like anything, reading this with no context takes away the significance. While the two teams are comparable statistically, the Giants played against Matt Ryan (indoors), Aaron Rogers (at Lambeau) and well, Alex Smith- so that’s not that big of a deal really. The Patriots on the other hand played against Tebow and Flacco. Need I say more?
Moving quickly to the regular season. The Patriots gave up nearly 300 yards passing a game and the Giants gave up 250. The Patriots gave up about 117 yards rushing per game vs. the Giants 120. The Patriots picked off opponents 23 times while the Giants did it 20 times. And the Patriots force 10 fumbles whereas the Giants forced 13. These stats again are pretty comparable although they favor the Giants slightly more. But once again, out of context, the significance gets diminished. Remember those stats and then look back at who the Giants played: the Cowboys, San Francisco, New Orleans, Green Bay and the Patriots just to name a few. New England, on the hand, played the Giants and the Cowboys…. Yup. The defensive stats look less comparable now, yes? Yes.
But let’s be honest with ourselves. We’re expecting an offensive onslaught on Sunday, right? I know I am. The defensive stats mean little because both offenses will score. The question is how much. Now for the postseason, the Patriots do indeed have the statistical advantage in points, passing, and rushing. However, that’s deceiving because they Pats put up 45 against the Broncos with 363 yards throwing and 146 yards rushing. Basically, the Patriots stats are as high as they are because they played a bad Broncos team (that just so happened to beat the Steelers… I know). And again, the Giants played three games on the road.
In the regular season, the Patriots scored 32 points per game vs. the Giants 24. Brady threw for 317 a game vs. Manning threw 295. New England ran for about 110 a game vs. the Giants 90. Everything is in the Patriots favor. That’s because they have a really good offense. It’s also because they played terrible defenses. In fact, the only good defense they played were the Steelers and the Ravens and they lost to one of those team and should have lost to the other! Come on folks, the Patriots are clearly very good offensively, but they’re not enough better than the Giants to avoid getting smushed by them.
Listen- forget all the stats. Let’s talk about common sense. The Patriots are a solid team but they’re missing Gronkowski, Coughlin will have an answer for Hernandez, Welker will probably hurt his knee on the turf, Manning is playing out of his mind, the Giants defense are meaner and seem to just need motivation to play well (which they’ll have this Sunday), the running backs for the Giants are much better and stronger than each person on the Patriots defense (except Wilfork), and the Patriots will probably get caught filming the Giants’ practice before Sunday even gets here.
Folks! The score will be 38 to 24. Take it to the bank. The game will be over by half time.
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